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#377116 - 01/19/08 11:49 AM Re: GLOBAL WARMING [Re: MattJ]
Cord Offline
Prolific

Registered: 01/13/05
Posts: 11399
Loc: Cambridge UK.
Quote:

Cord -

Not disputing our imminent species demise, either. In my mind however, it's more about what are we leaving the future generations.




We are leaving them exactly what we inherited, an ever changing orb rotating around a dying star. What happens to it/upon it will involve hundreds of thousands of years evolution after mankind has run its course, then it will die as the sun fizzles out.
Happy new year.
_________________________
Don't let the door hit ya' where the good lord split ya'
http://cord.mybrute.com

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#377117 - 01/19/08 02:55 PM It's cold here [Re: Cord]
JAMJTX Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 12/01/02
Posts: 585
Loc: Fort Wayne, IN
I found this kind of amusing.
It's bitter cold here in Fort Wayne. It been hovering in the teens for a couple of day now. Maybe warming up a little over 20 some times.

I was watching the local news and after the weather report the anchor was shocked that it was so cold. She asked the "weatherman" if there was any explaination for this "cold snap". My first thought was "DUH! It's winter".
But he was at a loss to explain it. He just basically said "it's just unseasonably cold".

I know he is a "weatherman", basically just a model who can read - and not a "meteorologist".

But I really think it's just the global warming madness that has pushed people so far over the edge that they can't even explain why it's not warm in the winter any more and they all cold in January "unseasonal". It's funny, but at the same time quite sad.

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#377118 - 01/19/08 04:47 PM Re: It's cold here [Re: JAMJTX]
MattJ Offline
Free Rhinoplasty!
Prolific

Registered: 11/25/04
Posts: 15634
Loc: York PA. USA
JAMJTX -

........and it's been usually warm here on the east coast.
As I have said before, the IPCC findings are not meant to be a local weather report for you. The IPCC report does not say that every day will be warmer than the next, nor that anywhere on earth will never experience cold again. The fact that it is cold in Indiana on a Saturday does not negate the overall findings of the report.

Amazing how people will look no further than their backyard when discussing a report with world-wide findings. But given the current administration in America, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Cord -

Again, not disputing that life on earth will end at some point in the future. HOWEVER , between now and then, perhaps we should pay some mind to the world that future generations will have to live with in the interim.
_________________________
"In case you ever wondered what it's like to be knocked out, it's like waking up from a nightmare only to discover it wasn't a dream." -Forrest Griffin

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#377119 - 01/19/08 05:05 PM Re: It's cold here [Re: MattJ]
JAMJTX Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 12/01/02
Posts: 585
Loc: Fort Wayne, IN
Matt,

You missed what I said.
What I said was that it should be expected to be cold in the winter. For a newcaster and a "weatherman" to be perplexed by the cold and not be able to explain why it's cold in the winter is ridiculous. The "global warming" hysteria has pushed these morons so far over the edge, that they think that don't even know why it still gets cold in the winter.

I also never said that the IPCC findings were supposed to be a locla report. You said I said that. What I said about them is that they are 1) wrong 2) based on junk science 3) they ignore the big picture of global weather, ice increases etc, to paint a picture that supports the political agenda of those that fund the studies.

In order to accept the notion of "global warming" you have to consider the "globe" to only include those places that are experiencing some ice melting or unusual warmth. Or to put in your terms, you have to look at the IPCC data as a local weather report.

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#377120 - 01/20/08 08:11 AM Re: It's cold here [Re: JAMJTX]
wristtwister Offline
like a chiropractor, only evil

Registered: 02/14/06
Posts: 2210
Loc: South Carolina
Jim,
one of the problems with understanding science is that everybody seems to want it to be complicated to understand and simple to fix. When I did wastewater plant design, we had very specific information about the discharges into the streams, and sometimes the fix was as simple as planting a particular type of grass where the effluents flowed into the stream to remove them. What that did, was to cause the grasses to absorb something that would be a poisonous combination in the stream, but once absorbed into the grasses was inert as it mixed with the other elements of the grass.

Another method we used was to simply pave over chemical dump sites where controlling the amount of ground water going into the chemicals allowed them to leach out in safe amounts into the natural groundwater. Leaving them open to rainwater washed large amounts of ground chemicals into the streams... so while the fixes are sometimes simple, they are calculated and measured fixes that are specific to the kind of pollution being dealt with.

Other solutions we used were equally creative, but still based on the specific problem. We were always cognizant of the general weather patterns of the area, yearly rainfall amounts, etc... basic things that are "going to happen" in the normal climate of the area... just like using the "prevailing winds" to figure out the method of dealing with stack discharges for chemical plants.

Weather trends are pretty predictable, but just like anything else in science, there are anomolies, such as snow in the south, which is happening today, or unseasonable warm weather up north, which isn't right now. Attributing any particular single event of weather to "global change" is pure poppycock, as there are always anomolies. Hurricanes and tornados are anomolies of weather, but the conditions that create them are well known, and reasonably predictable... but even the "weather experts" get it wrong most of the time... like the 3 inches of snow that never got here yesterday.

Global warming and cooling trends have been going on since the earth formed, and will continue. None of them is the panacea that is being touted, for the weather is still "seasonably consistent" all over the world. Some changes happen, but that's why they keep "weather records" to measure the highs and lows.

We're having snow from Mississippi to North Carolina this weekend, but it's not the end of life as we know it... it's a seasonable anomolie where the right conditions created an event that I've seen in my lifetime many different times. Keeping your brain in when dealing with the weather is always a problem if you are an alarmist, and such things as "its cold in winter, and warm in summer" is easily lost if you are struggling to "blame" something for the anomolie.

_________________________
What man is a man that does not make the world a better place?... from "Kingdom of Heaven"

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#377121 - 01/21/08 03:16 AM Re: It's cold here [Re: wristtwister]
floatfishski Offline
Member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 88
Loc: Danver for now.
You are touching on the principle of Occam's razor. It is also referred to a the law of parsimony or succinctness. And its basic tenant is that if all things are held equal, the simplest solution is usually the correct one. Another way to put it is that the function with the fewest assumptions in its derivation will usually be correct. Have we seen this type of warming before? The answer is of course yes. The argument for anthropogenic forcing is a construct of assumptions, leaps of faith. Because we have seen such warming, and perhaps to a greater degree in the past, chances are what caused it then is what is causing now. Even if, and I emphasize if, we were the primary cause of warming, we can do nothing to change it short or long term. Even if we cut CO2 production by 1/2 the hysteresis of the system prohibits any significant benefit from the corrective measures called for by Kyoto or other proposed solutions for multiple decades. There is not a switch, a thermostat that can be adjusted, that can be managed. And the proposed solutions are sophistic at best, and more accurately fall into the realm of casuistry.

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#377122 - 01/21/08 03:48 AM and to add to the discussion.... [Re: wristtwister]
floatfishski Offline
Member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 88
Loc: Danver for now.


My Nobel Moment
By JOHN R. CHRISTY
November 1, 2007; Page A19

I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001 Nobel Laureate" to my resume.

The other half of the prize was awarded to former Vice President Al Gore, whose carbon footprint would stomp my neighborhood flat. But that's another story.


Large icebergs in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Winter sea ice around the continent set a record maximum last month.
Both halves of the award honor promoting the message that Earth's temperature is rising due to human-based emissions of greenhouse gases. The Nobel committee praises Mr. Gore and the IPCC for alerting us to a potential catastrophe and for spurring us to a carbonless economy.

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyze at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming -- around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per century, if current warming trends of 0.25 degrees per decade continue.)

It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"

I haven't seen that type of climate humility lately. Rather I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the specter of a global-warming apocalypse. Explaining each successive phenomenon as a result of human action gives them comfort and an easy answer.

Others of us scratch our heads and try to understand the real causes behind what we see. We discount the possibility that everything is caused by human actions, because everything we've seen the climate do has happened before. Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk before. One millennium there are hippos swimming in the Thames, and a geological blink later there is an ice bridge linking Asia and North America.

One of the challenges in studying global climate is keeping a global perspective, especially when much of the research focuses on data gathered from spots around the globe. Often observations from one region get more attention than equally valid data from another.

The recent CNN report "Planet in Peril," for instance, spent considerable time discussing shrinking Arctic sea ice cover. CNN did not note that winter sea ice around Antarctica last month set a record maximum (yes, maximum) for coverage since aerial measurements started.

Then there is the challenge of translating global trends to local climate. For instance, hasn't global warming led to the five-year drought and fires in the U.S. Southwest?

Not necessarily.

There has been a drought, but it would be a stretch to link this drought to carbon dioxide. If you look at the 1,000-year climate record for the western U.S. you will see not five-year but 50-year-long droughts. The 12th and 13th centuries were particularly dry. The inconvenient truth is that the last century has been fairly benign in the American West. A return to the region's long-term "normal" climate would present huge challenges for urban planners.

Without a doubt, atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing due primarily to carbon-based energy production (with its undisputed benefits to humanity) and many people ardently believe we must "do something" about its alleged consequence, global warming. This might seem like a legitimate concern given the potential disasters that are announced almost daily, so I've looked at a couple of ways in which humans might reduce CO2 emissions and their impact on temperatures.

California and some Northeastern states have decided to force their residents to buy cars that average 43 miles-per-gallon within the next decade. Even if you applied this law to the entire world, the net effect would reduce projected warming by about 0.05 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, an amount so minuscule as to be undetectable. Global temperatures vary more than that from day to day.

Suppose you are very serious about making a dent in carbon emissions and could replace about 10% of the world's energy sources with non-CO2-emitting nuclear power by 2020 -- roughly equivalent to halving U.S. emissions. Based on IPCC-like projections, the required 1,000 new nuclear power plants would slow the warming by about 0.2 ?176 degrees Fahrenheit per century. It's a dent.

But what is the economic and human price, and what is it worth given the scientific uncertainty?

My experience as a missionary teacher in Africa opened my eyes to this simple fact: Without access to energy, life is brutal and short. The uncertain impacts of global warming far in the future must be weighed against disasters at our doorsteps today. Bjorn Lomborg's Copenhagen Consensus 2004, a cost-benefit analysis of health issues by leading economists (including three Nobelists), calculated that spending on health issues such as micronutrients for children, HIV/AIDS and water purification has benefits 50 to 200 times those of attempting to marginally limit "global warming."

Given the scientific uncertainty and our relative impotence regarding climate change, the moral imperative here seems clear to me.

Mr. Christy is director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and a participant in the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-recipient of this year's Nobel Peace Prize.

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#377123 - 01/21/08 04:12 AM Re: It's cold here [Re: wristtwister]
floatfishski Offline
Member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 88
Loc: Danver for now.
And here is a link many might find informative.

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p41.htm

Sorry if I'm over posting but I just took a contract to review/compile "global warming" data including the impacts of proposed solutions to economics for NREL and NCAR. Thought it would be pertinant and informative to this discussion.

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#377124 - 01/21/08 08:48 AM Re: It's cold here [Re: floatfishski]
ButterflyPalm Offline
Enigma

Registered: 08/26/04
Posts: 2637
Loc: Malaysia
And to think we cancelled a BBQ last weekend. Can't you people make up your minds? A Nobel Prize is given to someone who says Planet Earth is just too complicated for us to understand and even if we do understand it, nothing can or should be done anyway because it's just too complicated?
_________________________
I'll rather be happy than right, anytime.

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#377125 - 01/21/08 10:53 AM Fred Seitz is a liar [Re: floatfishski]
MattJ Offline
Free Rhinoplasty!
Prolific

Registered: 11/25/04
Posts: 15634
Loc: York PA. USA
*sound of buzzer*

FFS -

John Christy is a noted skeptic, and clearly (even by his own admission), the minority view in this matter:

Quote:

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see.




The minority view does not invalidate the majority, sorry.

Quote:

And here is a link many might find informative.

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p41.htm







And Fred Seitz? Are you serious? This Fred Seitz? -

http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Seitz_Tobacco_Crimes.html

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=6

"Dr. Seitz is a former President of the National Academy of Sciences, but the Academy disassociated itself from Seitz in 1998 when Seitz headed up a report designed to look like an NAS journal article saying that carbon dioxide poses no threat to climate. The report, which was supposedly signed by 15,000 scientists, advocated the abandonment of the Kyoto Protocol. The NAS went to unusual lengths to publically distance itself from Seitz' article. Seitz signed the 1995 Leipzig Declaration."

So I am supposed to believe the former tobacco company exec on a report partially funded by Exxon?!



Try again, please.

PEOPLE, PLEASE STOP GETTING YOUR INFO FROM FOX NEWS AND THE LIKE. THEY LIE ABOUT EVERYTHING.

Again, show me another large, international, peer-reviewed study that disproves the IPCC.

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