TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future..

Posted by: Neko456

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/25/08 06:41 PM

I can see 10 years in the future Martial artist will be back to grass roots training SD Combat orinetated and full range and spectrum. They will concentrate on incorperating their h2h with their modern weaponary.

The reality competiton stage will have progressed to reality combat where you fight until you get armed and fight until the you can't fight anymore, we will regress to gladiator life or death training as close as we can get in the ring, judged by the crowd thumbs dows or up.

Some schools will go back to family systems/back yard or garage private classes only certain serious students with the same mindset and goals will be trained.

The point fighting as we know it will fade only be seen in movies and comic books, padded up so no one gets hurt. Point fighting will regress to bare knuckle fighting with emphasises on 1st take out combo rather 1st touch wins.

In ten years if we see 10 things will be real tough and the MA will change with the times as it always done.

Posted by: JMWcorwin

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/25/08 07:59 PM

Get a judo gi on that guy FAST! Or better yet, when do they attach the 50 cal and send him into the field?

honeslty, a little frightening.

See? There's 3 confirmed personalities in one post; I have to tell my doctor... damn! That's 4.

Posted by: TheCrab

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/25/08 08:07 PM

In ten years everyone will have recognised that carrying a minigun is the best self defence art.
That or yoga

Posted by: Big_Rob

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/25/08 09:31 PM

Well specifically in America I think martial arts will slowly be going out of business.
You will have 3 groups

1. The MMA trainers (These people will charge a premium for serious fighters who plan to live in their compound and train 7 days a week, these trainers will be compensated by stealing their Prize money and their endorsement money. By this time promoters will run the circuits and large corporations like Nike and Coco-Cola will be paying millions for their name to be tattooed on the current raining champion.)

2. Really good McDojo's who's marketing is top notch (they will sell out Fat clinics and Day care classes for families who work 2 jobs)

3. Those giving it for free. (They will keep the art alive for the next 30 years until we come out of the recession and people can afford to train again. These people will teach many different arts and it will become an elite underground cult where people train full contact and fight death matched.)

.... OK a little dramatic but something like that.

Posted by: Aegishjalmur

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/26/08 12:49 AM

LOL...underground death match.....

I see sword arts fading even more out of the mainstream....perhaps even a little bit in the video game/movie genre as well. I agree with whoever said it will begin to contain a lot of gun defense/use. Weapons change and guns are in, so I see a rise in that to be inevitable. As far as traditonal styles, I do see a small group of people who will bust their hump to preserve it as MMA takes center stage. What little allure the Asian martial arts still have will probably fade as terms like Sifu, karateka, sensei, and bushido continue to be bastardized by the media and the like. And yeah, lot's of health clinics offering cardio kick boxing.

Posted by: ButterflyPalm

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/26/08 05:31 AM

I think we should sticky this and see who got it right in 10 years time, assuming of course that the Internet itself is still around and people still enjoy talking to each other.

For myself, in 10 years time I'll be 69 and probably couldn't care less who is right because martial arts as is practiced even today is a misnomer anyway. But please don't let any cynicism gets in the way of preserving what little is left.

Posted by: Supremor

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/26/08 11:46 AM

I agree with Dereck, I don't see much change in the next ten years. Let's face it, MMA has happened, that was the big shock to the martial arts world.

Sure MMA will become a very big combat sport, perhaps bigger than boxing in 10 years time, however it will still not be mainstream. I mean, how mainstream was practicing boxing, even in the golden age? Not very, at least outside school or military programs. Other arts are not going to suddenly go out of business; they may change elements of their training, but they have plenty of people who like what they do now, so why change(not necessarily a criticism BTW)?

Niche martial arts will reamin niche, e.g. sword arts and the like. I disagree with Victor's idea about a return to backyard training. Teachers are generally very pleased to spread their ideas to as many people as possible, and while there may be advantages to having just a very small group of "chosen" people, there are also many advantages to having a larger school with good organisation and tournaments and the like. Anyway, a return to backyard training to me sounds pretty elitist. Anyone who wants to train martial arts should have the opportunity to do so, why should we all be held hostage to a teacher's first impression of us, or his personal prejudices? Are we going to return to Japanese teachers only teaching Japanese students?

So yes, I see things remaining quite similar. Maybe I lack imagination, but I feel the big change has been and gone; anything more is just the ripples from that change.

Hi Freddie,

The idea isn't mine. The latest issue of Classical Fighting Arts has a long interview with a Senior Japanese instructor in the USA who is doing just that. Disillusioned at what is occurring he no longer want's to train anyone but a very select few. He also mentioned a senior Uechi instructor in England doing the same thing, and I recall Dr. Yang Jwing Ming is aslo running a very elite training program.

I suspect the most senior are depressed at where martial democracy has gone, and yes their answer is eliete. Of course at every level, senior responsiblity, knowledge and ability are only for the eliete. Nothing new there, just participation does not give those skills or knowledge.

While I've been teaching for free for decades, I don't turn people away but it's almost impossible to know my program exists, and it remains very small by my design.

I'm of the opinion while the arts have gone from what maybe 200 karate 100 years ago to maybe 30,000,000 today, the number getting advanced instruction may remain constant.

On a personal level I haven't seen that orgnaizations have really offered anything for the arts either. They're a post 1950 idea in the Okinawan arts, and from everything I've seen the highest organization in reality is the dojo, which it always had been even when the dojo pre 1950 on Okinawaw was the instructor's living room or their garden.

Just because Organizations and Dojo were a Japanese import that others followed, doesn't mean any of them define the arts in the long run. The past is as logical for the future as what exists now, the future being filled with incredible possiblities.

As for arts beyond the Okinawan rooted experiences, I pay no attention to their efforts, just wish them my sincere best.

just an opinion.

Posted by: jude33

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 12:11 AM

There's no need to add these techniques to Judo, and doing so would be contrary to Kano's ideals for the art.

They wouldnt need to be added. They are already in judo except rarely trained. They exist in kata form.
Kano's ideals were to use the safe parts of judo for the judo ka to experience what it would be like in a fight.
It wasnt intended to be a sport.

Quote:

Furthermore, Judo is an Olympic sport and as such is heavily regulated and unlikely to change significantly as an artform while it remains in the Olympics.

Judo wasnt intended as a sport. Part of it became a sport.
Actualy it does exist in slightly more of an art form with the BJC.

Quote:

Besides which, those techniques which have been banned from competition are still taught in kata form.

Like I said they dont need to be added if they already exist? And like any kata what would be the point if the contents werent isolated and trained?

Kano devised a method of fighting.

Jude

Posted by: Leo_E_49

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 05:02 AM

Quote:

Kano's ideals were to use the safe parts of judo for the judo ka to experience what it would be like in a fight.
It wasnt intended to be a sport.

I'm not arguing about Kano's ideals. There's a good reason why he removed the dangerous techniques from randori, adding them back in would undermine his principles about the practice of Judo.

Quote:

Judo wasnt intended as a sport. Part of it became a sport.
Actualy it does exist in slightly more of an art form with the BJC.

Well like it or not, Judo has become an Olympic sport and it will remain largely in its current state while it continues to be in the Olympics. Unless you're suggesting that Judo will be removed from the Olympics in the next 10 years, in which case, you may be right about reintroducing kata techniques into randori. If you were referring to Kosen Judo, there's no need to change that either, although it may well change in the next 10 years.

Quote:

Kano devised a method of fighting.

Regardless of what he devised, or how it may be utilised, the fact is that while it exists in its current Olympic form, it is unlikely to change much. The same goes for all other Olympic sports, such as TKD, boxing, wrestling, etc.

There can be a duality between sports and arts, such that an MA can also be a sport. This does not imply that it would be ineffective for combat, in fact, I consider Judo to be one of the best MA for self-defense; but that doesn't change the fact that it is also a sport.

Posted by: Supremor

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 11:32 AM

Quote:

I believe judo would be trained with all the elements present and not just competition/ sport.

I agree with Leo, I can't see any big changes to judo happening. One change which I have heard is happening in Britain is to remove the requirement for success in competition from the grading syllabus for ranks below 1st kup. This makes our system closer to the system of the rest of Europe, but it is still a bad idea in my opinion.

They are also talking more about kata now in British Judo, because they want competitors to use a wider range of techniques. Again, I think it is a retrograde step; judo training in Britain is really top notch, indeed it has consistently been one of our best olympic sports.

If you also mean the inclusion of more techniques, like leg locks or minor joint manipulation, then this too I can't see happening. The technique framework of judo is pretty much created now, and most of the rule changes are minor ones that aim to keep the action going and force competitors to try to win decisively. There is the odd technique (hold-downs where the hips face upwards is a prime example) that has been banned for no reason other than politics, and perhaps these will change again. But Judo is a very strong martial art today and is very popular, so why go and change it?

Posted by: Ronin1966

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 12:12 PM

Hello Supremor:

Thank you for contributing!

Follow-up, how is "backyard training" elitist

? What can you foresee in 10 years time, martially speaking?

Jeff

Posted by: Ronin1966

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 12:15 PM

Hello Whitedragon11:

Are you being earnest I see/saw no .gifs in your post to help anyone determine?

Jeff

Posted by: Ronin1966

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 12:27 PM

Hello:

I like the idea that very broad groups will affiliate to initiate FRIENDLY contact, ~... hey do you do the Sanchia form...~ to examine different perspectives on common ground.

Better yet, I like the idea of such groups making contact with the countries of their initial contact/origin and interacting with groups there...

Jeff

Posted by: Neko456

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 12:29 PM

I think that dojos are heading that way now of course they don't credit Ti or Okinawan submission wrestling for this move its more like finding groundfighting anywhere they can fill the gap. But I agree that most Martial arts will be full range in 10 years if not sooner. It shouldn't matter where it comes from as long as it works for you.

I also believe that Trad arts will have a crowd you can only train MMA so long before your body burns out just like old Judo/Jujitsu men started training in Aikido so will the vast majority of mix martial artist they will bring this experience back to their base whatever that it was.

How about android sparring partners so you can go full out break his leg and gouge his eyes in combo of course, choke him out or break his arm and he regenerates and come back for more next session.

Or you have to press a Escape button to stop him from pounding on ya!!!

Posted by: WhiteDragon11

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 04:54 PM

Sorry i was being to extreme with my idea. I was more along the lines with what is going on now. IMHO, I think that martial arts are becoming either self defense oriented or the XMA stylish. However, in my post above, that was definately too extreme. Since in 10 years, the change wont be as dramatic as I made it.

Posted by: Supremor

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 04:59 PM

Quote:

Follow-up, how is "backyard training" elitist ?

I feel it is elitist because of Victor's description of instructors hand-picking their students and only teaching a small group. If the instructor is truly a good and well known one, then there will be far more demand for his expertise than he can satisfy through his small class, so he will necessarily have to turn many people away. This would mean, in my view, that those chosen to be students are naturally an elite. And who knows what agenda an instructor has when choosing his students; what prejudices he brings to the table.

I don't mean to disrespect such people, but historically speaking there has been a lot of prejudice in martial arts- chinese only teaching chinese, japanese only teaching japanese etc. I just feel that hand-picking students can, while it can really benefit those training and produce some really good martial artists, it throws many earnest people, who do not "fit" neatly into that group, into the cold.

So I have no problem with people training in their back-yard per se, I mean as long as it's big enough lol.

Posted by: Kimo2007

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 05:11 PM

In ten years....

MMA will hit it's crest and level out, even pair down. Today too many new schools open and close. Injuries will mount, so will lawsuits insurance costs will neuter a lot of the training.

TMA will be the more interesting thing. I think there will be a weeding out of second rates schools to some degree. I think as the first generation of MMA guys start to tire of the full contact stuff they will turn to TMA's and only the real 'Masters" of different arts will gain their interest.

TMA schools, I also belive will all have some form of ground fighting, but will also put a higher priority on conditioning.

I agree that John's dream of more aliveness in training will come true, but that overtime the value of the so called "dead" training will be realized and the two methods will blend into the optimal training method.

May not all happen in 10 years, but this is the trend I see.

Posted by: matxtx

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 07:06 PM

There are martial artists out there moving forward all the time.They just are not as well know or advertise themselves like others.They are not in it for money or fame.
So its happening right now.

I think the MMA/NHB area is pushing forward the most and will do more.
Modern sport science training methods and science methods that progress for all athletes are taken on board by MMA/NHB martial artists and some experiment and innovate.
Examples would be being fast over very short distances which is what martial artist need.Whoever is worldclass at doing that,eg sprinters,can be an influence.
Pulling,grabbing,pushing, etc is important for martial artists.What world class athletes can influence there?
Thinking on the spot,fast decision making,timing, the ability to 'work' in choas.How are fighter pilots training or others who have to do this?
Just examples there are lots more things.

How to train hard with contact yet safe?

MMA/NHB combat sports based people have been and are looking in these directions and will move forward.

Maybe more will add weapons like the Dog brothers.
Maybe there will be a UFC type tournement like that.Start with weapons and see what happens.Haha.
Then again,its been done by gladiators.

Posted by: iaibear

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 08:52 PM

Quote:

I feel it is elitist because of Victor's description of instructors hand-picking their students and only teaching a small group. If the instructor is truly a good and well known one, then there will be far more demand for his expertise than he can satisfy through his small class, so he will necessarily have to turn many people away. This would mean, in my view, that those chosen to be students are naturally an elite. And who knows what agenda an instructor has when choosing his students; what prejudices he brings to the table.

I don't mean to disrespect such people, but historically speaking there has been a lot of prejudice in martial arts- chinese only teaching chinese, japanese only teaching japanese etc. I just feel that hand-picking students can, while it can really benefit those training and produce some really good martial artists, it throws many earnest people, who do not "fit" neatly into that group, into the cold.

So I have no problem with people training in their back-yard per se, I mean as long as it's big enough lol.

Don't we already have enough rampant mediocrity that we have to start dragging affirmative action into the picture?

If he only has room for 5, let him choose the five he thinks will best carry on his line.

Posted by: Victor Smith

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 10:05 PM

Freddie,

The martial arts in reality are always elitist. If the allies had strategically chosen to bypass Okinawa for an invasion in WWII, always an alternative to save troops for the invasion of the Japanese mainland, there is a strong case that Okinawan karate might have never been shared with the world.

But the issue isn't the Japanese only teaching Japanese, it's the reality no matter what you want if you can't be trained up to receive it, you can't get it. That's not prejudice but reality. There are many senior instructors who can't pass it to their own children for many reasons. Some can and do, others can't.

For example you're wanting to study the kama I teach will never be enough simply because I only teach in one method and without 15+ continous years of study to get to the point where I teach it, I'd never consider sharing it otherwise.

In this example no matter what you study, no matter who you are, the only qualification begins with 15+ years of training under me. Of course the larger qualification is that you have the desire, you have the ability and you have the time to wait.

My own experiences make me understand those instructors. The masses are driven by different focus than they are. They only want those who meet their own specifications.

This is prejudiced of course for I won't teach it to those who can't move as I wish and only my instruction can impart that ability.

Now whether this example is true or illustrative I leave to your imagination. The kata I'm referencing is Chosen No Kama Dai and I guarantee you there are likely only a handfull of people in the world who practice it, it's from a private tradition.

Is my answer elitist, or is it realistic based on the need to have someone with truly advanced skills to address the study.

One of my friends has spent over 30 yeras studying Faan Tzi ying jow Pai - Norethern Eagle Claw, a truly complex and large system. Without undergoing constant study for decades there is a ton of material you can't get.

Only a handfull of people in the world have that entire body of material. And those who get it are elite too, elite in their skills, elite in their ability to spend a lifetime in that study.

Posted by: tkd_high_green

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/27/08 10:09 PM

Well based on the abc article on the MMA, it would appear that in 10 years, the martial arts will be completely illegal, or at the very least will prohibit anyone under the age of 18 from training.

I may have the right to bear arms, but I won't have the right to use the fists attached to them.

Laura

Posted by: jude33

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/28/08 04:53 AM

Quote:

.

How about android sparring partners so you can go full out break his leg and gouge his eyes in combo of course, choke him out or break his arm and he regenerates and come back for more next session.

Or you have to press a Escape button to stop him from pounding on ya!!!

Hi Neko, Nice!!!

Actualy from my studies I observe they do go full out in bareknuckle vale tudo. The only thing is no gouging, biting or scratching. They use headbutts and most things. The thing is it looks to me that their conditioning and defence techniques are so that there seems to be little damage to the combatants.

Its realy in a way getting back to what Medulant said and I have researched in my studies. Spin that back in time with
all the farming tools used for conditioning, bare knuckle conditioning etc and we might be getting back to a toned down way of how ti might have been used. Minus weapons of course.

So hopefully the uses for the anderiod will be as you defined.

Jude

Posted by: jude33

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/28/08 05:48 AM

Quote:

I believe judo would be trained with all the elements present and not just competition/ sport .

Quote:

I'm not arguing about Kano's ideals. There's a good reason why he removed the dangerous techniques from randori, adding them back in would undermine his principles about the practice of Judo.

It depends on who considers which technique to be dangerous.

Well like it or not, Judo has become an Olympic sport and it will remain largely in its current state while it continues to be in the Olympics.
Unless you're suggesting that Judo will be removed from the Olympics in the next 10 years, in which case, you may be right about reintroducing kata techniques into randori.

Randori is/ was a training tool.There were several different ways of using randori. Olympic sport isnt realy randori as randori was intended. There are techiques in judo kata that couldnt be introduced in to randori??
Why is the theme on randori? Elements of judo should be trained and not just the sport side doesnt always mean randori???

Quote:

If you were referring to Kosen Judo, there's no need to change that either, although it may well change in the next 10 years.

B.J.C doesnt stand for kosen???

Quote:

Regardless of what he devised, or how it may be utilised, the fact is that while it exists in its current Olympic form, it is unlikely to change much . The same goes for all other Olympic sports, such as TKD, boxing, wrestling, etc.

There can be a duality between sports and arts, such that an MA can also be a sport. This does not imply that it would be ineffective for combat, in fact, I consider Judo to be one of the best MA for self-defense; but that doesn't change the fact that it is also a sport.

Sport judo to my mind is not the best way of training judo to be combat effective in self defence

"It is my opinion International Competition Judo diverges from Jigoro Kano’s original concepts of Judo as an education for everyone, of any ability, to improve their physical and mental health.

Said to be quoted from
Kyoza Mifune".

The BJC stands for the British Judo Council. They train it more as an art as well as members taking part in as you term sport/ competition.

Modern Olympic sport judo isnt to much like the art that was created. Throwing someone for Ippon or having a time limit on the ground isnt the best kind of combat effective training.
Look back at early randori.

Jude

Posted by: Leo_E_49

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 03/28/08 09:03 AM

Quote:

It depends on who considers which technique to be dangerous.

I suppose so, however, you'd have to ask the IOC about that, neither of us is in the position to make that decision (unless you are a member of the IOC in which case, I suggest you go do something about it).

Quote:

Randori is/ was a training tool.There were several different ways of using randori. Olympic sport isnt realy randori as randori was intended. There are techiques in judo kata that couldnt be introduced in to randori??
Why is the theme on randori? Elements of judo should be trained and not just the sport side doesnt always mean randori???

Refer to the history of Kosen Judo to understand why the ruleset of Kodokan Judo is the way it is today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosen_Judo

I didn't make the rules, Kano did. As I said many, many other styles of Jujutsu (including BJJ) do not follow such a limited ruleset. e.g. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlYCMJNFjoE. There's no reason to take away the ruleset which makes Judo an Olympic sport, when so many other styles follow different rulesets and while Judo retains those techniques in kata.

Quote:

B.J.C doesnt stand for kosen???

If you're referring to the British Judo Council, they are hardly the largest governing body in Judo and nor do they have any control over the IOC. Kosen Judo was created a LONG time before the formation of the BJC.

Quote:

Sport judo to my mind is not the best way of training judo to be combat effective in self defence

"It is my opinion International Competition Judo diverges from Jigoro Kano’s original concepts of Judo as an education for everyone, of any ability, to improve their physical and mental health.

Said to be quoted from
Kyoza Mifune".

Regardless, sport Judo is here to stay, unless the IOC decides to drop it from the Olympics. If that happens, Judo will likely fall into greater obscurity. Something which I, for one, would not like to see happen.

My prediction is not based upon what I want to happen, but rather what is likely to happen based on current trends. (I would love to see Judo randori adopt the traditional Jujutsu techniques)

Posted by: Jeff_G

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 04/02/08 03:01 AM

I have no doubt that people will bemoan whatever happened to the arts. "They were so much better ten years ago".

Posted by: JoshuaMonjin

Re: TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future.. - 04/02/08 02:00 PM

I would like to see more of an understanding in people of the differences between traditional, self-defense, mma, and sport that way each can focus on what they do best without the incessent bad-mouthing of each other.

TEN YEARS (ONLY) into the future..